What is the purpose and how to calculate the probability?


(Hardyhero) #1

I was checking some series details information.
There we can see the probability to get each card and this can vary for each collection.
Here is an example using The Gumpies collection…

20 very rare … 1 in 10 free packs
20 extremely rare … 1 in 15 free packs
7 chase … 1 in 101 free packs

But in case of chase, there are different amount of print for each chase.

The chase Solarisa have only 100 prints.
The chase Jutroon have 1000 prints.

So, what is the point of this information “7 chase … 1 in 101 free packs”?
Is this a fake information?
What is the real probability to get a Solarisa chase, for example?
Where this 1/101 informatio came from?


(Loimprevisto) #2

It’s not very helpful at all. It’s the same situation with sets that have a lot of variants with low print counts where they would sometimes show up as “almost every pack” even though the odds of getting most of them were very low.

You could probably derive the real probability by totaling up the overall number of cards in the set and dividing by the print count of that specific card, or just by comparing it to the 2000ct ERs. So, for a 100ct chase that has 1/20th the card count of an ER, the odds would be 1 in 300 free packs.


(Peopleschampion) #3

If there are 6100 chases (6x1000+1x100) and the distribution is 1 in 101 packs, there must be 616’100 packs/2 cards per pack. Very close to the real count of cards in The Gumpies.

For Solarisa, 616’100 packs/100 copies of Solarisa= 1 in 6’161. Which explain why so few of it have been pulled.


(Hellivioze) #4

The way the odds work, is that it gives you the odds of opening a print of that rarity. It doesn’t give you the odds of getting a specific print